‘Black Panther’ Poised To Slash ‘Avengers: Age Of Ultron’ 4-Day Haul With $216M
By the time the four-day President’s Day holiday stretch ends, Black Panther will have surpassed many of Marvel’s mightiest on the all-time domestic B.O. openers chart. Black Panther is now looking at the 6th best opening of all-time on a 3-day-basis with an estimated $187.6M per industry projections and a mind-blowing $216M over four days.
How much do moviegoers love Black Panther? The Ryan Coogler-directed movie earned an A+ CinemaScore tonight, Marvel’s second after 2012’s The Avengers.
On the 3-day all-time chart, Black Panther is just above Captain America: Civil War ($179.1M). Back in January Fandango reported that out of the gate in its first 24 hours, Black Panther outstripped the advance tickets sales of Civil War, however, analysts didn’t rush to comp the Wakanda superhero to Marvel’s other titles. They just couldn’t believe at the time how massive this was going to be. While Black Panther is under Avengers: Age of Ultron on the 3-day all-time openers list ($191.2M), the pic is beating the sequel’s four-day run ($204.4M). Black Panther has already left Disney’s Beauty and the Beast ($174.7M) and WB/DC’s Batman v. Superman ($166M) in the dust to become the biggest pre-summer opener of all-time.
Black Panther is now at $76.6M for Friday. Thursday’s previews of $25.2M rep 33% of Friday’s ticket sales. Similar to a Star Wars title, Black Panther was a big pre-planned event for many this weekend, with Fandango advance ticket sales driving 36% of Thursday’s preview figure or $9M.
We hear from Screen Engine/ComScore’s PostTrak that African American moviegoers at 40% are driving Black Panther‘s ticket sales. Diverse casts in films like Star Wars: The Force Awakens, The Last Jedi, the Fast and the Furious series, Twilight and Hunger Games have always yielded big business, but Black Panther with its near total Black ensemble cast is a groundbreaking landmark for Hollywood. Disney will continue to break glass ceilings soon after Black Panther: On March 9, the studio will open the feature adaptation of the children’s classic A Wrinkle In Time, which at a $100M-plus budget is the first production of its scope to be directed by a woman of color, Oscar nominee Ava DuVernay (at one point before Coogler, she was in talks to potentially direct Black Panther). The pic is currently tracking for an opening around a $35M four weeks out from release, but those estimates could increase. Disney has to be trailoring the pic on Black Panther. In addition, Disney’s 2019 live-action release The Lion King touts a large Black cast that includes Beyonce, Donald Glover, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Keegan-Michael Key, James Earl Jones, Alfre Woodard and Eric Andre among many others.
Black Panther in CinemaScore audience exits shows a 50/50 male-female audience with 25+ repping 66% of the crowd. Close to 70% came because it’s Black Panther, while 15% bought tickets because of Coogler and 28% because they are Michael B. Jordan and Chadwick Boseman fans.
Social media is on fire as people leave the theater: RelishMix is reporting that Twitter hashtags for #BlackPanther and @TheBlackPanther have set an all-time movie record since Thursday night with 559K unique Twitter posts in one day (100K per day is exceptional) — and that’s over twice what the social media monitor saw with #LastJedi which peaked out at 232K in a day back in December.
After hiring Boseman back in October 2014 in a five picture deal, Marvel spurred momentum for Black Panther by introducing him in Captain America: Civil War. Disney literally showed the media the first footage of the casino heist scene back in April during a Marvel press day. That footage became public back in July when the studio unveiled it at San Diego Comic-Con.
Disney aired the first trailer for Black Panther in June during the NBA Finals Game 4, clocking 89M views in the first 24 hours. In addition there was another trailer during NBA’s opening night on Oct. 17. Tickets went on sale on Jan. 8. This was announced during the ESPN College Football National Championship. Kendrick Lamar had a halftime performance during that event; he produced an album of songs from and inspired by the film. RelishMix notes “Panther successfully took a page out of other big social movies like Pitch Perfect 3 and Fifty Shades Freed” in harnessing the social media powers of recording artists Lamar, The Weeknd and SZA. Already Lamar and SZA’s “All the Stars” has cleared 18M-plus views on YouTube:
There was a massive synergy program with integrations in ESPN College Football Playoffs, and on ABC’s Blackish, Grownish, TGIT (Grey’s Anatomy, Scandal, How to Get Away With Murder), and Bravo’s Real Housewives. In the last week on ESPN, NBA All-Star D’Andre Jordan carpooled to an arena with Kenny Mayne where they get a rare sighting of the Black Panther in an integrated car chase cameo.
RelishMix reports that Black Panther‘s social media universe resides at 901M which is off the charts for a February release especially when stacked up against other Marvel titles and their first week SMU’s, i.e. Thor: Ragnarok at 858M and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 at 792M. Black Panther counts 390K daily YouTube views driving toward a total of 340M, which is immense, and nearly matching those on Facebook (330M). Some of Disney’s social media stunts for the pic included the first-ever video Q&A on Tumblr with Boseman. There was also a Twitter live Q&A event in NYC (Feb. 12) streamed globally and into 10 IMAX theaters around the US – archived for placements in Apple TV, Roku, Amazon (it’s a social marketing stunt that no other studio has attempted on such a mass scale).
Black Panther had a presence at New York Fashion Week on Feb. 13, working with such renegade designers as Cushnie Et Ochs, Ikiré Jones, Tome, Sophie Theallet, Fear of God, Chromat, and Laquan Smith who created custom pieces inspired by the film.
Promo partners included Lexus which ran a spot during Super Bowl LII titled “Long Live the King,” with fresh footage and clips showing the superhero’s sister and bodyguard using the 2018 Lexus LS 500 F Sport performance sedan to collect him. By partnering with Black Panther, The Toyota Motor Corp. auto brand was aiming at a younger demographic, and in the ad world, the younger the demo is, the more culturally diverse. According to RelishMix, the Lexus tie-in spot generated 4.3M views on social following the Super Bowl telecast.
Black Panther star Michael B. Jordan worked closely with the movie’s other promo partner, Pepsi’s Brisk Ice Tea. PepsiCo and Unilever launched an arts program in urban areas in partnership with Jordan providing an opportunity to young film, visual arts and writing visionaries to be mentored by established artists. Jordan directed, produced and starred in a Super Bowl commercial celebrating artists’ creative hustle and spotlighting his process for transforming into his Black Panther character Erik Killmonger. Creators had the chance to win an apprenticeship at Jordan’s production company. In addition, Brisk hosted an event for Black Panther fans during the NBA All-Star weekend in Los Angeles, CA, on Feb. 16-17 with interactive Marvel-inspired installations. The pop-up event showcased the nine new Brisk labels created by emerging artists to kick off and promote the Creators Class program. The labels will debut on all Brisk packaging nationwide later this month.
Lancome featured a line of make-up products worn by Black Panther stars Lupita Nyong’o and Letitia Wright on the red carpet.
Synchrony Financial teamed with Coogler and Marvel to award the Ghetto Film School Fellows program with a $50K grant. The Ghetto Film School Fellows is a non-profit program that helps aspiring filmmakers from local communities, giving them a better chance at reaching their dreams, free of charge. The students take part in a 30-month process in which they can visit sets, screen their films and find help to get into college. Coogler stopped by the Ghetto Film School to speak to students.
Industry estimates for the weekend of Feb. 16-19:
1..) Black Panther (DIS), 4,020 theaters / $76.6M Fri (includes $25.2M in previews) /3-day: $187.6M /4-day: $216M/Wk 1
2..) Peter Rabbit (SONY), 3,725 theaters / $4.2M Fri (-26%) /3-day: $17.7M (-29%) /4-day: $23M /Total: $54M/Wk 2
3..) Fifty Shades Freed (UNI), 3,768 theaters / $5.7M Fri (-69%)/3-day: $17.75M(-54%)/4-day: $20.2M/Total: $79.4M Wk 2
4..) Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (SONY), 2,800 theaters (-336) / $1.85M Fri /3-day: $8M (-20%)/4-day: $10.5M /Total:$380.2M/ Wk 9
5..) The 15:17 to Paris (WB), 3042 theaters / $2.1M Fri (-43%)/3-day: $8.5M(-32%)/4-day: $9.95M/Total: $27.7M/ Wk 2
6..) The Greatest Showman (FOX), 1,936 theaters (-437) / $1.3m Fri / 3-day: $5.7M (-11%)/4-day: $7M /Total: $156.4M/Wk 9
7..) Early Man (LG), 2,494 theaters / $858K Fri /3-day: $3.5M /4-day: $4.8M/Wk 1
8..) Maze Runner: Death Cure (FOX), 1,892 theaters (-1,031) / $659K Fri /3-day: $2.7M (-56%) /4-day: $3.3M/ Total: $54.8M/Wk 4
9..) The Post (FOX/DW), 1,050 theaters (-815) / $464K Fri /3-day:$1.96M (-46%)/4-day: $2.45M/Total: $77M/Wk 9
10..) Samson (PURE), 1,249 theaters / $642K Fri /3-day: $1.95M /4-day: $2.3M/Wk 1
Friday, 11:53AM: The first set of estimates are in, and they’re showing that Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther is headed toward a historic weekend with $200M-$205M over four-days, $175M over three. These figures do not come from Disney. The Ryan Coolger-directed, an co-written pic with Joe Robert Cole should post an estimated $72M today, with last night’s $25.2M previews repping 35% of that number.
On a three-day and four-day basis, Black Panther‘s estimates are easily the pre-summer records beating Beauty and the Beast ($174.7M 3-day, $188.2M 4-day) and Warner Bros./DC’s Batman v. Superman ($166M 3-day, $181M 4-day). If these figures maintain, then Black Panther will own the 7th best opening of all-time at the domestic box office behind Captain America: Civil War ($179M). The pic is also on track to beat Marvel’s Iron Man 3 ($174.1M 3-day, $185.4M 4-day). Beyond amazing, especially for this time of year, but this holiday always works in the majors’ favor: ComScore reports that 23% K-12 and 9% colleges are off today, figures which will respectively spike to 88% out and 34% out. Over four-days, Coogler’s Black Panther beats the first four days of F. Gary Gray’s Fate of the Furious’ debut by 86% (or $107.3M). Gray owned the previous opening record for a movie directed by an African American.
Universal’s Fifty Shades Freed is estimated to take $5.5M today, -70% with a 4-day between $15M-$20M in second place. On the high end, this sends the threequel’s cume to $79M-plus.
Lionsgate/StudioCanal/Aardman’s family title Early Man is eyeing $1.1M today, $6.1M over four-days in its opening.
PureFlix’s sword and sandal movie Samson is looking at $750K for Friday, $2.6M over the four-day holiday.
A huge shoutout for this weekend: Never bet against Hugh Jackman and Zac Efron singing together. 20th Century Fox’s original musical The Greatest Showman which was slow out of the gate will out-sing Lionsgate’s Oscar-winning La La Land ($151.1M) at the domestic box office on Saturday. Benj Pasek and Justin Paul won last year’s original song Oscar for “City of Stars” from the Damien Chazelle feature musical, and the songwriting duo are up again this year for “This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman. The original musical about P.T. Barnum will earn $5M-$6Mover four days.
Friday, 8:24AM: Black Panther‘s previews are exactly where we told you we would see them and Disney is reporting $25.2M this morning. This is the second best Thursday ever for a Marvel movie after Avengers: Age of Ultron ($27.6M) and some nickels above Captain America: Civil War ($25M). Among pre-summer releases and their preview nights, Black Panther ranks second behind Batman v. Superman ($27.7M). Already, according to Fandango, 61% are considering seeing Black Panther a second time.
Imax auditoriums grossed roughly $3M last night, which is tied with the large format exhibitor’s results for Ultron and Civil War. Black Panther Imax figures also blew away the preview results of Deadpool which made $2.265m on 372 screens two years ago. Black Panther is in play on 404 Imax screens.
A bulk of advance tickets have been purchased by churches, youth groups, fraternities, sororities, and student groups as they celebrate the first major Black ensemble blockbuster on screen. There is a viral crowd-sourcing effort that has taken place called the #BlackPantherChallenge — which allows kids to see the movie for free. Frederick Joseph, a New York-based philanthropist, launched the crowd-funding initiative last month to raise $40K and help children in Harlem see the movie. The challenge fueled 400 GoFundMe drives that have raised over $400K. Donations have arrived from J.J. Abrams, Chelsea Clinton, Viola Davis, and Ellen DeGeneres (who pledged $10K to the Boys and Girls Club of Harlem).ere is Davis’ rally for the challenge.
PREVIOUS EXCLUSIVE: Writethru with demos, 11:20pm: We have a read on Thursday night estimates for Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther — and they look fantastic.
Earlier tonight sources were spotting the movie between $22M-$24M, and now the thinking is that the Ryan Coogler-directed movie about Marvel’s Black superhero T’Challa will clear $25M. Black Panther will either beat or tie with Captain America: Civil War ($25M) as the second best Marvel preview ever behind Avengers: Age of Ultron ($27.6M). This is also easily the second biggest pre-summer preview night ever behind Batman V. Superman which made $27.7M. On the high end, it’s nearly double the $12.7M what Deadpool posted prior to its record February four-day weekend of $152.1M. These early estimates for Black Panther are exclusively from Deadline, so if you see them reported by a rival trade, they got them from us.
Other records being broken: Advance ticket sales continue to go wild over at Fandango with Black Panther now their fourth-biggest pre-seller of all-time behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story. A few weeks ago, Fandango reported that Black Panther is their biggest superhero ticket-seller.
Note there is a margin of error when shooting from the hip this early. Tonight’s numbers could be much higher by morning. If Black Panther continues on this pace, it’s looking approximately at $65M for Friday (including Thursday), $161M over three and $180M-plus for four. Again, none of this comes from Disney.
Already in its first two days abroad, Black Panther, with $23.3M, is beating the opening figures of MCU deeper universe character Doctor Strange.
It’s a special night and weekend for many people. Black Panther is a cultural milestone, becoming the highest-grossing title to star a Black ensemble cast. It will also be a record-breaking opening for an African-American director. Already, in ComScore/Screen Engine PostTrak audience reactions Black Panther is flying off the charts with an enormous 91% definite recommend (Typically anything in the 70% range is pretty good) and an overall 96% positive score and five-star rating. Those over 25 at 61% are the biggest crowd turning out with M25+ (34%), F25+ (27%), M25- (21%) an F25- (18%).
Regal cinemas and 270 RealD locations are showing exclusive content from Black Panther in over 270 locations at 6PM tonight, preceding the film.
Octavia Spencer has bought out two Feb. 17 screenings of Black Panther in Mississippi for those “families who are low on funds,” just as she promised in her Jan. 31 Instagram Tweet. On January 31, she posted that she was planning on buying out some screenings “in an under-served community there to ensure that all our brown children can see themselves as a superhero. I will let you know where and when Mississippi. Stay tuned. #KingsAndQueensWillRise#blackpanthermovie”